The Win Meter favors the Rockets at home against the Lakers on Sunday, March 28, at about 66%. That is a real edge, but the Lakers are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Rockets 66%, with a projected score of Los Angeles Lakers 112, Houston Rockets 117. The rating gap is 19 points in favor of the Rockets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Rockets on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 34 times in 100 games like this, the Lakers would win.
Recent form
The Lakers are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +2.2. The Rockets are 4-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +3.8.
The Lakers' best recent win was 127-105 at home against GSW.
The Lakers were beaten 131-108 at home by OKC not long ago.
The Rockets' best recent win was 128-110 at home against DAL.
The Rockets were beaten 98-78 at home by LAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Lakers score 128 a game and allow 115. The Rockets score 120.8 and allow 111. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 119.5 for the Lakers and 117.9 for the Rockets, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Lakers' offense is the stronger unit against the Rockets' defense.
The Rockets should find points against the Lakers' defense, which has been giving up 115.
Injuries to watch
Out: Cameron Carr (LAL), Adou Thiero (LAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Steven Adams (HOU), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Walker Kessler (LAL) and Marcus Smart (HOU). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Lakers lead 8-4, with the Lakers outscoring the Rockets by an average of 3.4 points per game. The last meeting was LAL 98, HOU 78.