Boston Celtics at Miami Heat on Saturday, March 27 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Celtics at only 56%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Celtics 56%, with a projected score of Boston Celtics 115, Miami Heat 114. The rating gap is 143 points in favor of the Celtics, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Heat on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 44 times in 100 games like this, the Heat would win.
Recent form
The Celtics are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.8. The Heat are 0-4 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10.4.
The Celtics' best recent win was 134-99 at home against CHI.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Celtics score 118 a game and allow 107.7. The Heat score 109 and allow 121.8. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 119.9 for the Celtics and 108.4 for the Heat, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
Injuries to watch
Out: Devin Carter (BOS), expected back Nov 8, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Celtics lead 7-1, with the Celtics outscoring the Heat by an average of 8.2 points per game. The last meeting was BOS 147, MIA 129.