Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns on Friday, March 26 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Suns about a 80% chance, and the Bucks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Suns 80%, with a projected score of Milwaukee Bucks 110, Phoenix Suns 119. The rating gap is 146 points in favor of the Suns, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Suns on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Bucks are 1-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4. The Suns are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -12.8.
The Bucks were beaten 126-106 on the road by PHI not long ago.
The Suns were beaten 124-83 on the road by POR not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Bucks score 116.8 a game and allow 122.3. The Suns score 109.3 and allow 123.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 120.3 for the Bucks and 115.8 for the Suns, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Suns have been tough to score on, which should slow the Bucks.
The Bucks have defended better than the Suns have scored, so the Suns may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Mark Williams (PHX), expected back Feb 3, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Oso Ighodaro (PHX). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Suns outscoring the Bucks by an average of 1 points per game. The last meeting was MIL 108, PHX 105.