Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors on Thursday, March 25 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Warriors at only 52%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Warriors 52%, with a projected score of Toronto Raptors 114, Golden State Warriors 115. The rating gap is 86 points in favor of the Raptors, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Warriors on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 48 times in 100 games like this, the Raptors would win.
Recent form
The Raptors are 2-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +4. The Warriors are 1-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -5.8.
The Raptors' best recent win was 135-92 at home against CHI.
The Raptors were beaten 117-94 on the road by MIN not long ago.
The Warriors' best recent win was 134-114 on the road against DEN.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Raptors score 113.7 a game and allow 103.7. The Warriors score 117.3 and allow 120.8. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 117.3 for the Raptors and 110.5 for the Warriors, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Warriors have been tough to score on, which should slow the Raptors.
The Warriors should find points against the Raptors' defense, which has been giving up 103.7.
Injuries to watch
Out: Nate Bittle (TOR), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027, and Moses Moody (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Kawhi Leonard (TOR). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Raptors lead 3-1, with the Raptors outscoring the Warriors by an average of 8 points per game. The last meeting was TOR 145, GSW 127.