San Antonio Spurs at Indiana Pacers on Thursday, March 25 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Spurs about a 76% chance, and the Pacers would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 76%, with a projected score of San Antonio Spurs 118, Indiana Pacers 111. The rating gap is 300 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Pacers on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1. The Pacers are 2-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.2.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
The Pacers' best recent win was 136-109 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 121-105 at home by DAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Spurs score 112 a game and allow 112. The Pacers score 116.5 and allow 115. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 113.5 for the Spurs and 114.3 for the Pacers, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026, Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 28, 2026, T.J. McConnell (IND), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Johnny Furphy (IND), expected back Jan 2, 2027, and Ben Sheppard (IND), expected back Dec 1, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Ivica Zubac (IND) and Andrew Nembhard (IND). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Spurs lead 3-1, with the Spurs outscoring the Pacers by an average of 4.2 points per game. The last meeting was IND 119, SAS 134.