The edge goes to the Pistons at home against the Rockets on Thursday, March 25, at about 70%. That is a real edge, but the Rockets are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Pistons 70%, with a projected score of Houston Rockets 112, Detroit Pistons 117. The rating gap is 47 points in favor of the Pistons, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Pistons on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 3 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Rockets are 4-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +3.8. The Pistons are 3-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +5.6.
The Rockets' best recent win was 128-110 at home against DAL.
The Rockets were beaten 98-78 at home by LAL not long ago.
The Pistons' best recent win was 115-94 on the road against CLE.
The Pistons were beaten 125-94 at home by CLE not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Rockets score 120.8 a game and allow 111. The Pistons score 118.3 and allow 105.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 113.3 for the Rockets and 114.7 for the Pistons, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Rockets' offense is the stronger unit against the Pistons' defense.
The Pistons should find points against the Rockets' defense, which has been giving up 111.
Injuries to watch
Out: Steven Adams (HOU), expected back Nov 2, 2026 and Jalen Duren (DET), expected back Nov 9, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Marcus Smart (HOU), Ausar Thompson (DET), Isaiah Joe (DET), and Elijah Harkless (DET). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Pistons outscoring the Rockets by an average of 1.5 points per game. The last meeting was HOU 111, DET 104.