Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday, March 24 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Timberwolves about a 85% chance, and the Mavericks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Timberwolves 85%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 109, Minnesota Timberwolves 120. The rating gap is 199 points in favor of the Timberwolves, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Timberwolves on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 7 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 2-2 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.4. The Timberwolves are 3-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +7.6.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 128-110 on the road by HOU not long ago.
The Timberwolves' best recent win was 131-106 on the road against MIA.
The Timberwolves were beaten 139-109 at home by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Mavericks score 112.5 a game and allow 116. The Timberwolves score 122 and allow 105. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 108.8 for the Mavericks and 119 for the Timberwolves, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Mavericks' offense is the stronger unit against the Timberwolves' defense.
The Timberwolves should find points against the Mavericks' defense, which has been giving up 116.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Caleb Martin (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Donte DiVincenzo (MIN), expected back Apr 2, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Naji Marshall (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Timberwolves lead 6-1, with the Timberwolves outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 11.3 points per game. The last meeting was MIN 124, DAL 94.