San Antonio Spurs at Boston Celtics on Wednesday, March 24 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Celtics at only 55%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Celtics 55%, with a projected score of San Antonio Spurs 114, Boston Celtics 115. The rating gap is 68 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Celtics on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 45 times in 100 games like this, the Spurs would win.
Recent form
The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1. The Celtics are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.8.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
The Celtics' best recent win was 134-99 at home against CHI.
Offense against defense
The Spurs score 112 a game and allow 112. The Celtics score 118 and allow 107.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 109.9 for the Spurs and 115 for the Celtics, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Celtics should find points against the Spurs' defense, which has been giving up 112.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026, Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Devin Carter (BOS), expected back Nov 8, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Celtics outscoring the Spurs by an average of 2.3 points per game. The last meeting was BOS 116, SAS 125.