The edge goes to the Nuggets on the road against the Wizards on Wednesday, March 24, at about 72%. That is a real edge, but the Wizards are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Nuggets 72%, with a projected score of Denver Nuggets 117, Washington Wizards 112. The rating gap is 263 points in favor of the Nuggets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Wizards on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Nuggets are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -5.2. The Wizards are 2-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8.
The Nuggets were beaten 134-114 at home by GSW not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Nuggets score 113 a game and allow 121.7. The Wizards score 114.3 and allow 114.5. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 113.8 for the Nuggets and 118 for the Wizards, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Nuggets have defended better than the Wizards have scored, so the Wizards may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Julian Strawther (DEN), expected back Nov 29, 2026, Tristan Vukcevic (WAS), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Jamir Watkins (WAS), expected back Apr 2, 2027, and AJ Dybantsa (WAS), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Cameron Johnson (DEN), Alpha Diallo (DEN), and Justin Champagnie (WAS). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Nuggets outscoring the Wizards by an average of 1 points per game. The last meeting was DEN 107, WAS 97.