Recent form is the story in Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns on Tuesday, March 23. The Thunder have won 4 of their last 5, while the Suns have won 1.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 65%, with a projected score of Oklahoma City Thunder 116, Phoenix Suns 113. The rating gap is 206 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Suns on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 35 times in 100 games like this, the Suns would win.
The recent-form gap
The Thunder are 4-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +6.8. The Suns are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -12.8.
The Suns were beaten 124-83 on the road by POR not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Thunder score 111.3 a game and allow 100.8. The Suns score 109.3 and allow 123.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 117.5 for the Thunder and 105.1 for the Suns, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Suns have been tough to score on, which should slow the Thunder.
The Suns should find points against the Thunder's defense, which has been giving up 100.8.
Injuries to watch
Out: Cason Wallace (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027, Jalen Williams (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027, Chet Holmgren (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Oso Ighodaro (PHX). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 11-2, with the Thunder outscoring the Suns by an average of 14.2 points per game. The last meeting was PHX 114, OKC 125.