Recent form is the story in Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat on Tuesday, March 23. The Lakers have won 3 of their last 5, while the Heat have won 0.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Lakers 52%, with a projected score of Los Angeles Lakers 115, Miami Heat 114. The rating gap is 113 points in favor of the Lakers, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Heat on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 48 times in 100 games like this, the Heat would win.
The recent-form gap
The Lakers are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +2.2. The Heat are 0-4 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10.4.
The Lakers' best recent win was 127-105 at home against GSW.
The Lakers were beaten 131-108 at home by OKC not long ago.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Lakers score 128 a game and allow 115. The Heat score 109 and allow 121.8. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 124.9 for the Lakers and 112 for the Heat, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Lakers' offense is the stronger unit against the Heat's defense.
The Lakers have defended better than the Heat have scored, so the Heat may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Cameron Carr (LAL) and Adou Thiero (LAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Walker Kessler (LAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Lakers lead 3-1, with the Heat outscoring the Lakers by an average of 3.5 points per game. The last meeting was LAL 134, MIA 126.