New Orleans Pelicans at New York Knicks on Tuesday, March 23 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Knicks about a 90% chance, and the Pelicans would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Knicks 90%, with a projected score of New Orleans Pelicans 108, New York Knicks 121. The rating gap is 280 points in favor of the Knicks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Knicks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 10 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pelicans are 0-3 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4. The Knicks are 0-3 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8.
The Pelicans were beaten 144-118 on the road by BOS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pelicans score 124.7 a game and allow 128. The Knicks score 101.7 and allow 108. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 116.4 for the Pelicans and 114.9 for the Knicks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pelicans' offense is the stronger unit against the Knicks' defense.
The Pelicans have defended better than the Knicks have scored, so the Knicks may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Yves Missi (NOP), expected back Nov 2, 2026 and Jose Alvarado (NYK), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Knicks lead 4-0, with the Knicks outscoring the Pelicans by an average of 13.5 points per game. The last meeting was NOP 116, NYK 121.