Dallas Mavericks at LA Clippers on Monday, March 22 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Clippers about a 77% chance, and the Mavericks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Clippers 77%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 111, LA Clippers 118. The rating gap is 112 points in favor of the Clippers, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Clippers on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 2-2 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.4. The Clippers are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +2.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 128-110 on the road by HOU not long ago.
The Clippers' best recent win was 121-96 at home against SAC.
Offense against defense
The Mavericks score 112.5 a game and allow 116. The Clippers score 113 and allow 109.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 111.1 for the Mavericks and 114.5 for the Clippers, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Caleb Martin (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Bradley Beal (LAC), expected back Nov 8, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Naji Marshall (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Clippers lead 6-2, with the Clippers outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 10.4 points per game. The last meeting was DAL 103, LAC 116.