Atlanta Hawks at Golden State Warriors on Monday, March 22 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Hawks at only 52%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Hawks 52%, with a projected score of Atlanta Hawks 115, Golden State Warriors 114. The rating gap is 112 points in favor of the Hawks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Warriors on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 48 times in 100 games like this, the Warriors would win.
Recent form
The Hawks are 2-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8. The Warriors are 1-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -5.8.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
The Warriors' best recent win was 134-114 on the road against DEN.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Hawks score 121 a game and allow 111.8. The Warriors score 117.3 and allow 120.8. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 120.9 for the Hawks and 114.6 for the Warriors, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Warriors should find points against the Hawks' defense, which has been giving up 111.8.
Injuries to watch
Out: Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027, Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026, Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027, and Moses Moody (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Hawks lead 3-1, with the Hawks outscoring the Warriors by an average of 3.7 points per game. The last meeting was GSW 110, ATL 126.