Our ratings lean toward the Timberwolves at home against the Pistons on Monday, March 22, at about 58%. That is a real edge, but the Pistons are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Timberwolves 58%, with a projected score of Detroit Pistons 114, Minnesota Timberwolves 116. The rating gap is 43 points in favor of the Pistons, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Timberwolves on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 42 times in 100 games like this, the Pistons would win.
Recent form
The Pistons are 3-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +5.6. The Timberwolves are 3-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +7.6.
The Pistons' best recent win was 115-94 on the road against CLE.
The Pistons were beaten 125-94 at home by CLE not long ago.
The Timberwolves' best recent win was 131-106 on the road against MIA.
The Timberwolves were beaten 139-109 at home by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pistons score 118.3 a game and allow 105.7. The Timberwolves score 122 and allow 105. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 111.7 for the Pistons and 113.9 for the Timberwolves, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pistons' offense is the stronger unit against the Timberwolves' defense.
The Timberwolves should find points against the Pistons' defense, which has been giving up 105.7.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jalen Duren (DET), expected back Nov 9, 2026 and Donte DiVincenzo (MIN), expected back Apr 2, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Ausar Thompson (DET), Isaiah Joe (DET), Elijah Harkless (DET), and Isaac Jones (DET). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Pistons lead 3-1, with the Pistons outscoring the Timberwolves by an average of 5.5 points per game. The last meeting was MIN 108, DET 113.