The edge goes to the Bucks at home against the Wizards on Monday, March 22, at about 73%. That is a real edge, but the Wizards are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Bucks 73%, with a projected score of Washington Wizards 112, Milwaukee Bucks 118. The rating gap is 69 points in favor of the Bucks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Bucks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Wizards are 2-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8. The Bucks are 1-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4.
The Bucks were beaten 126-106 on the road by PHI not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Wizards score 114.3 a game and allow 114.5. The Bucks score 116.8 and allow 122.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 118.3 for the Wizards and 115.7 for the Bucks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Bucks have been tough to score on, which should slow the Wizards.
Injuries to watch
Out: Tristan Vukcevic (WAS), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Jamir Watkins (WAS), expected back Apr 2, 2027, and AJ Dybantsa (WAS), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Justin Champagnie (WAS). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Bucks outscoring the Wizards by an average of 1.4 points per game. The last meeting was MIL 116, WAS 128.