Our ratings lean toward the Cavaliers at home against the Rockets on Monday, March 22, at about 61%. That is a real edge, but the Rockets are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Cavaliers 61%, with a projected score of Houston Rockets 113, Cleveland Cavaliers 116. The rating gap is 25 points in favor of the Rockets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Cavaliers on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 39 times in 100 games like this, the Rockets would win.
Recent form
The Rockets are 4-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +3.8. The Cavaliers are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10.4.
The Rockets' best recent win was 128-110 at home against DAL.
The Rockets were beaten 98-78 at home by LAL not long ago.
The Cavaliers were beaten 130-93 at home by NYK not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Rockets score 120.8 a game and allow 111. The Cavaliers score 119.3 and allow 120. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 120.4 for the Rockets and 115.2 for the Cavaliers, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Cavaliers should find points against the Rockets' defense, which has been giving up 111.
Injuries to watch
Out: Steven Adams (HOU), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Marcus Smart (HOU). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Rockets lead 4-0, with the Rockets outscoring the Cavaliers by an average of 8 points per game. The last meeting was CLE 100, HOU 117.