Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday, March 21 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Lakers about a 83% chance, and the Mavericks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Lakers 83%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 109, Los Angeles Lakers 119. The rating gap is 176 points in favor of the Lakers, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Lakers on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 2-2 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.4. The Lakers are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +2.2.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 128-110 on the road by HOU not long ago.
The Lakers' best recent win was 127-105 at home against GSW.
The Lakers were beaten 131-108 at home by OKC not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Mavericks score 112.5 a game and allow 116. The Lakers score 128 and allow 115. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 113.8 for the Mavericks and 122 for the Lakers, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Lakers should find points against the Mavericks' defense, which has been giving up 116.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Caleb Martin (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Cameron Carr (LAL).
Day to day or questionable: Naji Marshall (DAL) and Walker Kessler (LAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Lakers lead 5-2, with the Lakers outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 4.6 points per game. The last meeting was LAL 128, DAL 134.