San Antonio Spurs at Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday, March 21 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Spurs at only 55%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 55%, with a projected score of San Antonio Spurs 115, Philadelphia 76ers 114. The rating gap is 135 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the 76ers on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 45 times in 100 games like this, the 76ers would win.
Recent form
The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1. The 76ers are 3-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.6.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
The 76ers were beaten 144-114 at home by NYK not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Spurs score 112 a game and allow 112. The 76ers score 110 and allow 107. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 109.5 for the Spurs and 111 for the 76ers, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Spurs' offense is the stronger unit against the 76ers' defense.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026, Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Dominick Barlow (PHI), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Ariel Hukporti (PHI), expected back Oct 1, 2027, and Tacko Fall (PHI), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Jabari Walker (PHI) and Joel Embiid (PHI). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Spurs lead 3-1, with the Spurs outscoring the 76ers by an average of 14 points per game. The last meeting was PHI 102, SAS 115.