Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat on Sunday, March 21 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Nuggets at only 53%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Nuggets 53%, with a projected score of Denver Nuggets 115, Miami Heat 114. The rating gap is 120 points in favor of the Nuggets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Heat on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 47 times in 100 games like this, the Heat would win.
Recent form
The Nuggets are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4. The Heat are 0-4 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10.4.
The Nuggets were beaten 112-96 on the road by MIN not long ago.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Julian Strawther (DEN), expected back Nov 29, 2026, Cameron Johnson (DEN), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Alpha Diallo (DEN), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Nuggets lead 3-1, with the Nuggets outscoring the Heat by an average of 4.7 points per game. The last meeting was DEN 123, MIA 147.