New Orleans Pelicans at Boston Celtics on Sunday, March 21 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Celtics about a 85% chance, and the Pelicans would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Celtics 85%, with a projected score of New Orleans Pelicans 109, Boston Celtics 120. The rating gap is 205 points in favor of the Celtics, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Celtics on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 7 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pelicans are 0-3 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4. The Celtics are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.8.
The Pelicans were beaten 144-118 on the road by BOS not long ago.
The Celtics' best recent win was 134-99 at home against CHI.
Offense against defense
The Pelicans score 124.7 a game and allow 128. The Celtics score 118 and allow 107.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 116.2 for the Pelicans and 123 for the Celtics, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pelicans' offense is the stronger unit against the Celtics' defense.
The Pelicans have defended better than the Celtics have scored, so the Celtics may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Yves Missi (NOP), expected back Nov 2, 2026 and Devin Carter (BOS), expected back Nov 8, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Celtics lead 4-0, with the Celtics outscoring the Pelicans by an average of 15.3 points per game. The last meeting was NOP 118, BOS 144.