The Win Meter favors the Bucks at home against the Pacers on Saturday, March 20, at about 61%. That is a real edge, but the Pacers are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Bucks 61%, with a projected score of Indiana Pacers 113, Milwaukee Bucks 116. The rating gap is 19 points in favor of the Pacers, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Bucks on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 39 times in 100 games like this, the Pacers would win.
Recent form
The Pacers are 2-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.2. The Bucks are 1-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4.
The Pacers' best recent win was 136-109 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 121-105 at home by DAL not long ago.
The Bucks were beaten 126-106 on the road by PHI not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pacers score 116.5 a game and allow 115. The Bucks score 116.8 and allow 122.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 119.4 for the Pacers and 115.9 for the Bucks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Bucks have been tough to score on, which should slow the Pacers.
Injuries to watch
Out: T.J. McConnell (IND), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Johnny Furphy (IND), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Ben Sheppard (IND), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Ivica Zubac (IND), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Andrew Nembhard (IND), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Bucks lead 9-5, with the Bucks outscoring the Pacers by an average of 2.3 points per game. The last meeting was IND 102, MIL 110.