Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday, March 20 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 80% chance, and the Grizzlies would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 80%, with a projected score of Oklahoma City Thunder 119, Memphis Grizzlies 110. The rating gap is 345 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Grizzlies on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Thunder are 4-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +6.8. The Grizzlies are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.6.
The Grizzlies' best recent win was 123-103 at home against UTA.
The Grizzlies were beaten 147-101 on the road by UTA not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Thunder score 111.3 a game and allow 100.8. The Grizzlies score 119 and allow 107.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 109.5 for the Thunder and 109.9 for the Grizzlies, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Grizzlies should find points against the Thunder's defense, which has been giving up 100.8.
Injuries to watch
Out: Cason Wallace (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027, Jalen Williams (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027, Chet Holmgren (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Karim Lopez (MEM) and Isaiah Stewart (MEM). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 11-0, with the Thunder outscoring the Grizzlies by an average of 16.7 points per game. The last meeting was OKC 117, MEM 116.