Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers on Saturday, March 20 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Cavaliers about a 86% chance, and the Bulls would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Cavaliers 86%, with a projected score of Chicago Bulls 109, Cleveland Cavaliers 120. The rating gap is 211 points in favor of the Cavaliers, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Cavaliers on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 7 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Bulls are 1-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -19.2. The Cavaliers are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10.4.
The Bulls were beaten 135-92 on the road by TOR not long ago.
The Cavaliers were beaten 130-93 at home by NYK not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Bulls score 110.8 a game and allow 129.5. The Cavaliers score 119.3 and allow 120. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 115.4 for the Bulls and 124.4 for the Cavaliers, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Cavaliers have been tough to score on, which should slow the Bulls.
The Bulls have defended better than the Cavaliers have scored, so the Cavaliers may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Nicolas Claxton (CHI), expected back Nov 4, 2026 and Patrick Williams (CHI), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Cavaliers lead 6-2, with the Cavaliers outscoring the Bulls by an average of 6.5 points per game. The last meeting was CLE 115, CHI 110.