Washington Wizards at New York Knicks on Saturday, March 20 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Knicks about a 95% chance, and the Wizards would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Knicks 95%, with a projected score of Washington Wizards 106, New York Knicks 123. The rating gap is 395 points in favor of the Knicks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Knicks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 20 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Wizards are 2-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8. The Knicks are 0-3 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8.
Offense against defense
The Wizards score 114.3 a game and allow 114.5. The Knicks score 101.7 and allow 108. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 111.2 for the Wizards and 108.1 for the Knicks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Wizards' offense is the stronger unit against the Knicks' defense.
The Wizards have defended better than the Knicks have scored, so the Knicks may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Tristan Vukcevic (WAS), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Jamir Watkins (WAS), expected back Apr 2, 2027, AJ Dybantsa (WAS), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Jose Alvarado (NYK), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Justin Champagnie (WAS). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Knicks lead 7-0, with the Knicks outscoring the Wizards by an average of 21.6 points per game. The last meeting was WAS 113, NYK 145.