Our ratings lean toward the Suns at home against the Heat on Friday, March 19, at about 69%. That is a real edge, but the Heat are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Suns 69%, with a projected score of Miami Heat 112, Phoenix Suns 117. The rating gap is 38 points in favor of the Suns, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Suns on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 31 times in 100 games like this, the Heat would win.
Recent form
The Heat are 0-4 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10.4. The Suns are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -12.8.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Suns were beaten 124-83 on the road by POR not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Heat score 109 a game and allow 121.8. The Suns score 109.3 and allow 123.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 116.4 for the Heat and 115.6 for the Suns, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Suns have been tough to score on, which should slow the Heat.
The Heat have defended better than the Suns have scored, so the Suns may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Mark Williams (PHX), expected back Feb 3, 2027 and Oso Ighodaro (PHX), expected back Oct 30, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Heat lead 3-1, with the Heat outscoring the Suns by an average of 5.5 points per game. The last meeting was MIA 111, PHX 102.