The edge goes to the Lakers at home against the Hawks on Friday, March 19, at about 65%. That is a real edge, but the Hawks are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Lakers 65%, with a projected score of Atlanta Hawks 113, Los Angeles Lakers 116. The two teams are rated almost level, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Lakers on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 35 times in 100 games like this, the Hawks would win.
Recent form
The Hawks are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6. The Lakers are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +2.2.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
The Lakers' best recent win was 127-105 at home against GSW.
The Lakers were beaten 131-108 at home by OKC not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Hawks score 124.7 a game and allow 109. The Lakers score 128 and allow 115. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 119.9 for the Hawks and 118.5 for the Lakers, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Hawks' offense is the stronger unit against the Lakers' defense.
The Lakers should find points against the Hawks' defense, which has been giving up 109.
Injuries to watch
Out: Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027, Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026, RayJ Dennis (ATL), Keshon Gilbert (ATL), and Cameron Carr (LAL).
Day to day or questionable: Jock Landale (ATL) and Walker Kessler (LAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Lakers outscoring the Hawks by an average of 5 points per game. The last meeting was ATL 116, LAL 141.