Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs on Friday, March 19 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Spurs about a 90% chance, and the Mavericks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 90%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 108, San Antonio Spurs 121. The rating gap is 274 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Spurs on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 10 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 2-2 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.4. The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 128-110 on the road by HOU not long ago.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
Offense against defense
The Mavericks score 112.5 a game and allow 116. The Spurs score 112 and allow 112. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 112.3 for the Mavericks and 114 for the Spurs, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Caleb Martin (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Naji Marshall (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Spurs lead 6-3, with the Spurs outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 7.9 points per game. The last meeting was SAS 122, DAL 106.