Sacramento Kings at Toronto Raptors on Friday, March 19 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Raptors about a 85% chance, and the Kings would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Raptors 85%, with a projected score of Sacramento Kings 109, Toronto Raptors 120. The rating gap is 207 points in favor of the Raptors, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Raptors on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 7 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Kings are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10. The Raptors are 2-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +4.
The Kings were beaten 121-96 on the road by LAC not long ago.
The Raptors' best recent win was 135-92 at home against CHI.
The Raptors were beaten 117-94 on the road by MIN not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Kings score 109.3 a game and allow 124. The Raptors score 113.7 and allow 103.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 106.5 for the Kings and 118.9 for the Raptors, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Kings' offense is the stronger unit against the Raptors' defense.
The Kings have defended better than the Raptors have scored, so the Raptors may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Dylan Cardwell (SAC), expected back Nov 6, 2026, Maxime Raynaud (SAC), expected back Nov 10, 2026, Ben Simmons (SAC), expected back Oct 1, 2027, Keegan Murray (SAC), expected back Nov 6, 2026, and Sean Pedulla (SAC).
Day to day or questionable: Kawhi Leonard (TOR). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Kings outscoring the Raptors by an average of 1.7 points per game. The last meeting was SAC 123, TOR 115.