Brooklyn Nets at San Antonio Spurs on Thursday, March 18 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Spurs about a 95% chance, and the Nets would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 95%, with a projected score of Brooklyn Nets 106, San Antonio Spurs 124. The rating gap is 397 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Spurs on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 20 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Nets are 0-3 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -18. The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.
The Nets were beaten 136-101 on the road by TOR not long ago.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
Offense against defense
The Nets score 111 a game and allow 123.7. The Spurs score 112 and allow 112. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 111.5 for the Nets and 117.9 for the Spurs, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Nets have defended better than the Spurs have scored, so the Spurs may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Tyler Bilodeau (BKN), expected back Oct 30, 2026, Joshua Jefferson (BKN), Grant Nelson (BKN), Drake Powell (BKN), and Ben Saraf (BKN).
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Spurs lead 4-0, with the Spurs outscoring the Nets by an average of 12.5 points per game. The last meeting was SAS 126, BKN 110.