Our ratings lean toward the Trail Blazers at home against the Heat on Wednesday, March 17, at about 72%. That is a real edge, but the Heat are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Trail Blazers 72%, with a projected score of Miami Heat 112, Portland Trail Blazers 117. The rating gap is 63 points in favor of the Trail Blazers, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Trail Blazers on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Heat are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4. The Trail Blazers are 2-0 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -0.6.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Trail Blazers' best recent win was 124-83 at home against PHX.
The Trail Blazers were beaten 114-93 at home by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Shaedon Sharpe (POR), expected back Mar 2, 2027, Chris Youngblood (POR), expected back Oct 29, 2026, and Jayson Kent (POR).
Day to day or questionable: Pelle Larsson (MIA), Branden Carlson (POR), and Scoot Henderson (POR). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Trail Blazers outscoring the Heat by an average of 0 points per game. The last meeting was MIA 110, POR 127.