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Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers: preview and Win Meter

Phoenix Suns → Los Angeles Lakers →

The edge goes to the Lakers at home against the Suns on Wednesday, March 17, at about 73%. That is a real edge, but the Suns are far from out of it.

How the Win Meter reads

The Win Meter reads the Lakers 73%, with a projected score of Phoenix Suns 111, Los Angeles Lakers 118. The rating gap is 73 points in favor of the Lakers, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Lakers on top of that.

A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.

Recent form

The Suns are 1-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -13.2. The Lakers are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +2.2.

The Suns were beaten 124-83 on the road by POR not long ago.

The Lakers' best recent win was 127-105 at home against GSW.

The Lakers were beaten 131-108 at home by OKC not long ago.

Injuries to watch

Out: Mark Williams (PHX), expected back Feb 3, 2027, Oso Ighodaro (PHX), expected back Oct 30, 2026, Drew Timme (PHX), Cameron Carr (LAL), expected back Oct 27, 2026, and Adou Thiero (LAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026.

Day to day or questionable: Walker Kessler (LAL). Their status can change before tip-off.

The season series

In our records of recent meetings, the Suns lead 5-4, with the Suns outscoring the Lakers by an average of 3 points per game. The last meeting was PHX 73, LAL 101.

Last five games

Oldest to newest. Tap a result for the score.

Suns1-4, -13.2 avg margin
Lakers3-2, +2.2 avg margin

Pick a result above.

Keys to the game

  • The Lakers arrive in better form (L-L-W-W-W against L-L-L-L-W).
  • Health: 5 players are listed as out, so watch who steps into the rotation.
  • Home court is worth about three and a half points in our model, which helps the Lakers.

Recent meetings

  • Apr 10: PHX 73, LAL 101
  • Feb 26: LAL 110, PHX 113
  • Dec 23: LAL 108, PHX 132
  • Dec 14: LAL 116, PHX 114
  • Dec 1: PHX 125, LAL 108

Injury report

Phoenix Suns
  • Mark Williams Out · back Feb 3
  • Oso Ighodaro Out · back Oct 30
  • Drew Timme Out
Los Angeles Lakers
  • Cameron Carr Out · back Oct 27
  • Adou Thiero Out · back Oct 28
  • Walker Kessler Available

Win Meter

27%
73%
SunsLakers

Projected score: Suns 111, Lakers 118

Model estimate for information and entertainment.

Win Meter lab

The reading comes from the rating gap plus a bonus for home court and rest. Slide the bonus to see how much it matters.

27%
73%
SunsLakers

Matchup at a glance

PHXLAL
Record1-13-0
Last 5LLLLWLLWWW
Points per game107128
Allowed per game123115
Days of rest––
Rating15101583

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