The Win Meter favors the Warriors at home against the Grizzlies on Wednesday, March 17, at about 71%. That is a real edge, but the Grizzlies are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Warriors 71%, with a projected score of Memphis Grizzlies 112, Golden State Warriors 117. The rating gap is 58 points in favor of the Warriors, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Warriors on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 3 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Grizzlies are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.6. The Warriors are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.8.
The Grizzlies' best recent win was 123-103 at home against UTA.
The Grizzlies were beaten 147-101 on the road by UTA not long ago.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Grizzlies score 119 a game and allow 107.7. The Warriors score 111.7 and allow 123. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 121 for the Grizzlies and 109.7 for the Warriors, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
Injuries to watch
Out: Carson Cooper (MEM), Jahmai Mashack (MEM), Javon Small (MEM), Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, and Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Karim Lopez (MEM), Isaiah Stewart (MEM), Gui Santos (GSW), and Charles Bassey (GSW). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Warriors lead 7-2, with the Warriors outscoring the Grizzlies by an average of 0.9 points per game. The last meeting was MEM 111, GSW 108.