Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday, March 17 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 92% chance, and the Mavericks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 92%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 107, Oklahoma City Thunder 122. The rating gap is 316 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Thunder on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 13 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2. The Thunder are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -0.8.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Mavericks score 112.3 a game and allow 118.3. The Thunder score 106.7 and allow 96.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 104.3 for the Mavericks and 112.5 for the Thunder, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Mavericks' offense is the stronger unit against the Thunder's defense.
The Mavericks have defended better than the Thunder have scored, so the Thunder may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Caleb Martin (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Cason Wallace (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Cooper Flagg (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 4-3, with the Thunder outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 5.6 points per game. The last meeting was OKC 100, DAL 87.