Sacramento Kings at New York Knicks on Wednesday, March 17 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Knicks about a 93% chance, and the Kings would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Knicks 93%, with a projected score of Sacramento Kings 107, New York Knicks 123. The rating gap is 348 points in favor of the Knicks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Knicks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 14 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Kings are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10. The Knicks are 0-3 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8.
The Kings were beaten 121-96 on the road by LAC not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Kings score 109.3 a game and allow 124. The Knicks score 101.7 and allow 108. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 108.7 for the Kings and 112.9 for the Knicks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Kings have defended better than the Knicks have scored, so the Knicks may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Dylan Cardwell (SAC), expected back Nov 6, 2026, Maxime Raynaud (SAC), expected back Nov 10, 2026, Ben Simmons (SAC), expected back Oct 1, 2027, Keegan Murray (SAC), expected back Nov 6, 2026, and Sean Pedulla (SAC).
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Knicks lead 3-1, with the Knicks outscoring the Kings by an average of 14.3 points per game. The last meeting was SAC 87, NYK 103.