Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors on Tuesday, March 16 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Cavaliers at only 57%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Cavaliers 57%, with a projected score of Cleveland Cavaliers 115, Golden State Warriors 114. The rating gap is 147 points in favor of the Cavaliers, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Warriors on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 43 times in 100 games like this, the Warriors would win.
Recent form
The Cavaliers are 1-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -14. The Warriors are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.8.
The Cavaliers were beaten 130-93 at home by NYK not long ago.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Khalifa Diop (CLE), Nae'Qwan Tomlin (CLE), Ernest Udeh, Jr. (CLE), Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, and Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Gui Santos (GSW) and Charles Bassey (GSW). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Cavaliers lead 3-1, with the Cavaliers outscoring the Warriors by an average of 9.7 points per game. The last meeting was CLE 118, GSW 111.