Charlotte Hornets at Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday, March 16 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 81% chance, and the Hornets would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 81%, with a projected score of Charlotte Hornets 110, Oklahoma City Thunder 119. The rating gap is 156 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Thunder on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Hornets are 2-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -13. The Thunder are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -0.8.
The Hornets were beaten 128-81 at home by ATL not long ago.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Hornets score 102 a game and allow 113.7. The Thunder score 106.7 and allow 96.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 99.2 for the Hornets and 110.2 for the Thunder, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Hornets' offense is the stronger unit against the Thunder's defense.
The Hornets have defended better than the Thunder have scored, so the Thunder may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Coby White (CHA), expected back Oct 31, 2026, Kon Knueppel (CHA), expected back Oct 31, 2026, Grant Williams (CHA), expected back Oct 31, 2026, Cason Wallace (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027, and Jalen Williams (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Naz Reid (CHA). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 3-1, with the Thunder outscoring the Hornets by an average of 8.3 points per game. The last meeting was CHA 124, OKC 97.