The edge goes to the Pistons on the road against the Pacers on Tuesday, March 16, at about 72%. That is a real edge, but the Pacers are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Pistons 72%, with a projected score of Detroit Pistons 117, Indiana Pacers 112. The rating gap is 261 points in favor of the Pistons, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Pacers on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pistons are 3-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +5.6. The Pacers are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.8.
The Pistons' best recent win was 115-94 on the road against CLE.
The Pistons were beaten 125-94 at home by CLE not long ago.
The Pacers' best recent win was 136-109 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 121-105 at home by DAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pistons score 118.3 a game and allow 105.7. The Pacers score 121.3 and allow 116.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 117.5 for the Pistons and 113.5 for the Pacers, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pacers should find points against the Pistons' defense, which has been giving up 105.7.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jalen Duren (DET), expected back Nov 9, 2026, T.J. McConnell (IND), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Johnny Furphy (IND), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Ben Sheppard (IND), expected back Dec 1, 2026, and Ivica Zubac (IND), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Ausar Thompson (DET), Isaiah Joe (DET), Elijah Harkless (DET), and Isaac Jones (DET). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Pistons lead 5-3, with the Pistons outscoring the Pacers by an average of 8.5 points per game. The last meeting was DET 133, IND 121.