New York Knicks at Washington Wizards on Tuesday, March 16 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Knicks about a 84% chance, and the Wizards would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Knicks 84%, with a projected score of New York Knicks 120, Washington Wizards 109. The rating gap is 393 points in favor of the Knicks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Wizards on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Knicks are 0-3 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8. The Wizards are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.
The Wizards were beaten 140-117 at home by MIA not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Knicks score 101.7 a game and allow 108. The Wizards score 118 and allow 116. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 108.9 for the Knicks and 113 for the Wizards, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Wizards have been tough to score on, which should slow the Knicks.
The Wizards should find points against the Knicks' defense, which has been giving up 108.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jose Alvarado (NYK), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Tristan Vukcevic (WAS), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Jamir Watkins (WAS), expected back Apr 2, 2027, AJ Dybantsa (WAS), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Reece Beekman (WAS).
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Knicks lead 7-0, with the Knicks outscoring the Wizards by an average of 21.6 points per game. The last meeting was WAS 113, NYK 145.