Our ratings lean toward the Hawks on the road against the Mavericks on Monday, March 15, at about 62%. That is a real edge, but the Mavericks are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Hawks 62%, with a projected score of Atlanta Hawks 116, Dallas Mavericks 113. The rating gap is 184 points in favor of the Hawks, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Mavericks on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 38 times in 100 games like this, the Mavericks would win.
Recent form
The Hawks are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6. The Mavericks are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Hawks score 124.7 a game and allow 109. The Mavericks score 112.3 and allow 118.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 121.5 for the Hawks and 110.7 for the Mavericks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Hawks' offense is the stronger unit against the Mavericks' defense.
Injuries to watch
Out: Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027, Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026, RayJ Dennis (ATL), Keshon Gilbert (ATL), and Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Jock Landale (ATL) and Cooper Flagg (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Hawks outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 3.7 points per game. The last meeting was ATL 135, DAL 120.