Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday, March 14 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Lakers about a 81% chance, and the Warriors would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Lakers 81%, with a projected score of Golden State Warriors 110, Los Angeles Lakers 119. The rating gap is 156 points in favor of the Lakers, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Lakers on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Warriors are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.8. The Lakers are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +2.2.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
The Lakers' best recent win was 127-105 at home against GSW.
The Lakers were beaten 131-108 at home by OKC not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Warriors score 111.7 a game and allow 123. The Lakers score 128 and allow 115. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 113.4 for the Warriors and 125.5 for the Lakers, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Lakers should find points against the Warriors' defense, which has been giving up 123.
Injuries to watch
Out: Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Moses Moody (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Cameron Carr (LAL), expected back Oct 27, 2026, and Adou Thiero (LAL), expected back Oct 27, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Gui Santos (GSW) and Charles Bassey (GSW). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Lakers lead 7-2, with the Lakers outscoring the Warriors by an average of 8.3 points per game. The last meeting was GSW 105, LAL 127.