Washington Wizards at Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday, March 14 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Timberwolves about a 92% chance, and the Wizards would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Timberwolves 92%, with a projected score of Washington Wizards 107, Minnesota Timberwolves 122. The rating gap is 315 points in favor of the Timberwolves, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Timberwolves on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 13 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Wizards are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6. The Timberwolves are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +2.2.
The Wizards were beaten 140-117 at home by MIA not long ago.
The Timberwolves' best recent win was 131-106 on the road against MIA.
The Timberwolves were beaten 139-109 at home by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Wizards score 118 a game and allow 116. The Timberwolves score 121 and allow 97.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 107.9 for the Wizards and 118.5 for the Timberwolves, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Wizards' offense is the stronger unit against the Timberwolves' defense.
The Timberwolves should find points against the Wizards' defense, which has been giving up 116.
Injuries to watch
Out: Tristan Vukcevic (WAS), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Jamir Watkins (WAS), expected back Apr 2, 2027, AJ Dybantsa (WAS), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Reece Beekman (WAS), and Donte DiVincenzo (MIN), expected back Apr 2, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Anthony Edwards (MIN). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Timberwolves lead 3-1, with the Timberwolves outscoring the Wizards by an average of 12.3 points per game. The last meeting was MIN 141, WAS 115.