Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets on Sunday, March 14 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Nuggets about a 77% chance, and the Heat would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Nuggets 77%, with a projected score of Miami Heat 111, Denver Nuggets 118. The rating gap is 109 points in favor of the Nuggets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Nuggets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Heat are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4. The Nuggets are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Nuggets were beaten 112-96 on the road by MIN not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Julian Strawther (DEN), expected back Nov 29, 2026, and Alpha Diallo (DEN), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Pelle Larsson (MIA) and Cameron Johnson (DEN). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Nuggets lead 3-1, with the Nuggets outscoring the Heat by an average of 4.8 points per game. The last meeting was DEN 123, MIA 147.