Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors on Sunday, March 14 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Pistons at only 50%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Pistons 50%, with a projected score of Detroit Pistons 115, Toronto Raptors 115. The rating gap is 102 points in favor of the Pistons, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Raptors on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 50 times in 100 games like this, the Raptors would win.
Recent form
The Pistons are 3-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +5.6. The Raptors are 2-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +4.
The Pistons' best recent win was 115-94 on the road against CLE.
The Pistons were beaten 125-94 at home by CLE not long ago.
The Raptors' best recent win was 135-92 at home against CHI.
The Raptors were beaten 117-94 on the road by MIN not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pistons score 118.3 a game and allow 105.7. The Raptors score 113.7 and allow 103.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 111 for the Pistons and 109.7 for the Raptors, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pistons' offense is the stronger unit against the Raptors' defense.
The Raptors should find points against the Pistons' defense, which has been giving up 105.7.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jalen Duren (DET), expected back Nov 9, 2026 and Nate Bittle (TOR), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Ausar Thompson (DET), Isaiah Joe (DET), Elijah Harkless (DET), and Isaac Jones (DET). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Pistons lead 6-1, with the Pistons outscoring the Raptors by an average of 6.4 points per game. The last meeting was TOR 116, DET 127.