Our ratings lean toward the Thunder at home against the Spurs on Sunday, March 14, at about 68%. That is a real edge, but the Spurs are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 68%, with a projected score of San Antonio Spurs 112, Oklahoma City Thunder 117. The rating gap is 31 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Thunder on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 32 times in 100 games like this, the Spurs would win.
Recent form
The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1. The Thunder are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -0.8.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Spurs score 112 a game and allow 112. The Thunder score 106.7 and allow 96.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 104.2 for the Spurs and 109.4 for the Thunder, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Spurs' offense is the stronger unit against the Thunder's defense.
The Spurs have defended better than the Thunder have scored, so the Thunder may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026, Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Cason Wallace (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027, Jalen Williams (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027, and Chet Holmgren (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Spurs lead 9-7, with the Spurs outscoring the Thunder by an average of 1.2 points per game. The last meeting was OKC 116, SAS 104.