The edge goes to the Mavericks at home against the Pelicans on Saturday, March 13, at about 62%. That is a real edge, but the Pelicans are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Mavericks 62%, with a projected score of New Orleans Pelicans 113, Dallas Mavericks 116. The rating gap is 12 points in favor of the Pelicans, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Mavericks on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 38 times in 100 games like this, the Pelicans would win.
Recent form
The Pelicans are 0-3 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4. The Mavericks are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2.
The Pelicans were beaten 144-118 on the road by BOS not long ago.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pelicans score 124.7 a game and allow 128. The Mavericks score 112.3 and allow 118.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 121.5 for the Pelicans and 120.2 for the Mavericks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pelicans' offense is the stronger unit against the Mavericks' defense.
The Pelicans have defended better than the Mavericks have scored, so the Mavericks may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Yves Missi (NOP), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Caleb Martin (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Cooper Flagg (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Mavericks outscoring the Pelicans by an average of 3 points per game. The last meeting was DAL 111, NOP 129.