Indiana Pacers at Houston Rockets on Saturday, March 13 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Rockets about a 85% chance, and the Pacers would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Rockets 85%, with a projected score of Indiana Pacers 109, Houston Rockets 120. The rating gap is 208 points in favor of the Rockets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Rockets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 7 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pacers are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.8. The Rockets are 3-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +3.
The Pacers' best recent win was 136-109 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 121-105 at home by DAL not long ago.
The Rockets' best recent win was 128-110 at home against DAL.
The Rockets were beaten 98-78 at home by LAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pacers score 121.3 a game and allow 116.7. The Rockets score 121 and allow 111.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 116.3 for the Pacers and 118.9 for the Rockets, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pacers' offense is the stronger unit against the Rockets' defense.
Injuries to watch
Out: T.J. McConnell (IND), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Johnny Furphy (IND), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Ben Sheppard (IND), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Ivica Zubac (IND), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Steven Adams (HOU), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Kobe Brown (IND). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Rockets lead 3-1, with the Rockets outscoring the Pacers by an average of 3.8 points per game. The last meeting was HOU 118, IND 114.