The edge goes to the Hawks at home against the Magic on Saturday, March 13, at about 69%. That is a real edge, but the Magic are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Hawks 69%, with a projected score of Orlando Magic 112, Atlanta Hawks 117. The rating gap is 42 points in favor of the Hawks, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Hawks on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 31 times in 100 games like this, the Magic would win.
Recent form
The Magic are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -11.2. The Hawks are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6.
The Magic were beaten 115-93 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Magic score 109.7 a game and allow 116.3. The Hawks score 124.7 and allow 109. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 109.4 for the Magic and 120.5 for the Hawks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Hawks should find points against the Magic's defense, which has been giving up 116.3.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jonathan Isaac (ORL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Izaiyah Nelson (ORL), expected back Nov 18, 2026, Noah Penda (ORL), expected back Nov 18, 2026, Paolo Banchero (ORL), expected back Nov 22, 2026, and Jalen Suggs (ORL), expected back Nov 10, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Jock Landale (ATL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Hawks lead 7-3, with the Hawks outscoring the Magic by an average of 4.7 points per game. The last meeting was ATL 132, ORL 125.