Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets on Friday, March 12 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Nuggets about a 82% chance, and the Warriors would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Nuggets 82%, with a projected score of Golden State Warriors 110, Denver Nuggets 119. The rating gap is 163 points in favor of the Nuggets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Nuggets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Warriors are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.8. The Nuggets are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
The Nuggets were beaten 112-96 on the road by MIN not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Moses Moody (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Julian Strawther (DEN), expected back Nov 29, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Gui Santos (GSW), Charles Bassey (GSW), and Cameron Johnson (DEN). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Nuggets lead 4-3, with the Nuggets outscoring the Warriors by an average of 4.3 points per game. The last meeting was GSW 93, DEN 116.