Oklahoma City Thunder at Boston Celtics on Friday, March 12 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Thunder at only 50%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 50%, with a projected score of Oklahoma City Thunder 115, Boston Celtics 115. The rating gap is 103 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Celtics on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 50 times in 100 games like this, the Celtics would win.
Recent form
The Thunder are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -0.8. The Celtics are 1-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Celtics were beaten 113-97 at home by PHI not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Cason Wallace (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Jalen Williams (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027, Chet Holmgren (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 3-1, with the Thunder outscoring the Celtics by an average of 2.7 points per game. The last meeting was OKC 109, BOS 119.